Indeed the house of the acclaimed biggest and largest political party in Africa, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has been in disarray since the coming into existence of yet another mega party, the All Progressives Congress (APC).
However, the birth of the opposition APC is becoming a phenomenon threatening to end the PDP dominance of the country’s political landscape for the past 14 years. After several weeks of consultation, four of the aggrieved seven PDP governors, who had been at a loggerhead with Tukur, finally pitched their tents with the rave of the moment, APC. The governors are: Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Murtala Nyako [Adamawa]; Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers) and Abdulfattah Ahmed of Kwara State, while the body language of Governor Aliyu Wammakko, of Sokoto State is giving an indication that he will follow suit. Governors Sule Lamido and Babangida Aliyu of Jigawa and Niger states, respectively, however, later pulled out of the merger plan and pledged they would both remain in PDP.
While APC was still savouring the success of its political coup d’état against the ruling party, its membership further swelled as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Honourable Aminu Tambuwal, on Wednesday, 18 December, put paid to any further speculation as regards who among the PDP lawmakers in the lower chamber would follow the ‘rebel’ PDP governors to APC. The Speaker, during the plenary on that fateful day, announced the defection of 37 PDP lawmakers to the main opposition party.
Reading a letter dated December 18, 2013 and jointly signed by the defectors and addressed to him, Tambuwal said the affected lawmakers hinged their decision on the division in PDP. He added that their decision was in accordance with Section 68 (1) (g) of the 1999 Constitution, as amended. The Speaker also dismissed the attempt to draw his attention to suit filed by the defector lawmakers before an Abuja Federal High Court as he simply said, “I have listened to the point of order raised by our colleagues and I have taken note.” The announcement by Tambuwal of the defection had greatly altered the calculations in the membership of the lower chamber. For the first time in 14 years, PDP has lost its status as the majority party in the House of Representatives.
Coincidentally, while Tambuwal was announcing the defection of the 37 PDP lawmakers into the APC, another court order, dated 17th December, 2013, was issued by the Abuja Federal High Court, restraining the PDP national chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, Senate President David Mark and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from declaring vacant the seats of 22 senators of the party, if they eventually they decide to defect to another political party.
The court order, issued by Justice A.R. Mohammed and signed by the Registrar of the Court, Mrs Awase Igba, stated that the decision was sequel to a motion filed by 79 lawmakers in the National Assembly, which included 22 senators, seeking an order restraining the defendants from declaring their seats vacant. The move was aimed at preparing the senators for their planned defection to APC, though they are yet to formally write the Senate President, as required by Senate Standing Rules, on their decision to defect from PDP to another party. Hearing on the matter has been fixed for January 22, 2014.
“The second and third defendants should be asked to maintain status quo on any proposed deliberation to declare the seats of the affected and interested plaintiffs vacant, at least, pending the hearing and determination of the plaintiffs’ motion for interlocutory injunction. It is directed that the parties and, in particular, the second and third defendants shall maintain status quo on any proposed deliberation to declare the seats of the affected/interested plaintiffs in this suit vacant, pending the hearing and determination of the plaintiffs’ motion for interlocutory injunction already served on them”, the order read.
The 22 senators named as plaintiffs in the case are Bukola Saraki (Kwara Central), Bello Gwarzo (Kano North), Senator Abdullahi Adamu (Nasarawa West), Senator Magnus Abe (River South-East), Wilson Ake (Rivers West), Senator Shaaba Lafiagi (Kwara North), Danjuma Goje (Gombe Central), Aisha Alhassan (Taraba North), Ali Ndume (Borno South), Ahmed Zannah (Borno Central) and Simeon Ajibola (Kwara South).
Others included Bindowo Jubrilla (Adamawa North), Abdulaziz Usman (Jigawa North-East), Danladi Sankara (Jigawa North-West)), Abdulmumuni Hassan (Jigawa South-West), Hassan Barata (Adamawa South), Umaru Dahiru (Sokoto South), Ahmad Maccido (Sokoto North), Ibrahim Gobir (Sokoto East), Garba Mohammed (Kano Central), Isa Galaudu (Kebbi North) and Ahmed Alkali (Gombe North).
However, it remains hazy as regards who among the listed senators would eventually defect from PDP as some of them had earlier dissociated themselves from the planned defection. For example, Senator Ajibola had variously said his name was only being used as a decoy, claiming that he remained a bona fide PDP member. Some other senators, such as Hassan, have also said they would rather stay back in PDP to fight perceived injustice instead of defecting to another party.
In the midst of the confusion and speculations over which of the PDP senators will eventually find their way into APC, an unconfirmed report had it that the President of the Senate and Chairman of the National Assembly, Senator David Mark, recently held series of meetings with some of the senators who are said to be contemplating their exit from the ruling party. One of such meetings, reportedly held before the Christmas break, was ostensibly to put on hold the planned defection of the affected PDP lawmakers. The Senate President was said to have had successfully prevailed on over 10 senators who had perfected their plots to defect to APC at the last day of the Senate’s sitting. He was said to have advised them not to rush over the action as was done in the lower chamber. He said rather, they should be guided by the constitution which made the consequences of the action clear.
One of the senators had confided that the last sitting of the Senate before the Christmas break would have been the last day for them as PDP members as they had concluded plan to move en-masse to APC.
“However, this situation changed after the Senate President, shortly before the plenary, had a close door with us and the outcome of the meeting foreclosed our plan as we had an understanding with the Senate President. He insisted that we should take the holiday period to meditate on the plans. There was no need to go ahead with the action but nothing suggests that the issue is buried because we are certainly going to revisit it as soon as we reconvene in January,” the senator was reported to have said.
The fear being particularly nursed in the Senate is a possible change of baton, as the pendulum may swing should the APC lawmakers from the affected states choose to follow their governors into the APC. Based on simply calculations, the recent merger may necessarily lead to either an increase or a reduction in the number of the now two dominant parties in the Senate: PDP and APC. Before the five (or is it four?) governors pulled out of PDP, the ruling party had a majority number of seats in the 109-membered Senate with 72, while APC had 33, leaving both the Labour Party and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) with the remaining four seats on ratio three to one. However, the defection of the five PDP governors into APC may have had altered and weakened the status of PDP as the majority party in the Senate. From all indications, the party’ s seat has been reduced from the 72 to 56 senators now, with a corresponding increase in the number of APC senators from 33 to 49, while Labour and APGA still maintain their 3 and seats, respectively.
A breakdown of the 16 additional senatorial seats APC got in the Senate as a result of the merger revealed that two are from Kwara, that is, Bukola Saraki (Kwara Central) and Shaaba Lafiagi (Kwara North), while Simeon Ajibola (Kwara South) refused to follow the defecting governor. In Rivers, two of the three senators, Magnus Abe ((South/East) and Wilson Ake (West), may follow Amaechi into APC but, Senator George Sekibo (PDP Rivers East) has decided to remain in the PDP. In Kano, two of the PDP senators, Mohammed Basheer Garba ( Kano Central) and Gwarzo Bello Hayatu (Kano North) are believed to have followed Governor Kwankwaso to APC to join the third leg, Kabiru Gaya (South), who was already in the party by virtue of his being a member of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) which was part of what led to the emergence of the mega party earlier in the year.
In Adamawa, two out of the three PDP senators, that is, Ahmed Barata Hassan (Adamawa South) and Jibrila Mohammed Bindowo (Adamawa North) are said to be with Governor Nyako in APC merger, with Senator Tukur Bello Mohammed (Adamawa Central) remaining as the only PDP lawmaker from the state. The scenario is still dicey in Sokoto where, with the yet-to-be known status of Wammako in the APC romance, the three senators may still be members of PDP as they were believed to be on the same page with the governor.
Apart from the senators from the G5 states which had openly identified with APC, the mega party also have senators from pockets of other states, including Danjuma Goje (Gombe Central), Alhassan Aisha Jummai (Taraba North) who has never hide her disdain with the PDP National Chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, who she believed is the brain behind the plot to demolish her event centre in Abuja, Abdulahi Adamu (Nasarawa West) and Ali Ndume (Borno South) and Zannah Ahmmad (Borno Central) are also seen and believed to be with the APC. Ndume has however not really indicated his interest in leaving PDP for APC.
With the above scenario, watchers of event in the Senate are beginning to think that the upper legislative chamber may soon witness leadership change. The expectation was that the merger may swell the number of the APC senators and thus posing a threat to the present arrangement in the Senate under the PDP leadership.
The required simple majority is 55, while the Senate Rule asked for two-thirds majority, meaning 73 seats to the majority party. However, Abe, a pro-Amaechi lawmaker has claimed that APC would get the required number when, according to him, the remaining aggrieved PDP governors and some other senators eventually joined the party. “The fact that APC is increasing in number in the Senate and PDP is decreasing is an enough pointer that anything can happen in the mode of the former majority party in the Senate turning to minority. But as regards the leadership, I don’t have anything to say for now,” he had said.
However the Leader of the Senate, Senator Victor Ndoma-Egba, had ruled out the possibility of leadership change in the Senate as a result of the merger.
Speaking with newsmen in Abuja immediately after the defection of the four PDP governors, the Senate Leader said that, even with the merger, the opposition does not have the required two-third majority to effect any leadership change, adding that it was not a matter of having simple majority of membership that can bring about leadership change in the present circumstance.
According to Ndoma-Egba, the defection of the four governors to APC would not affect the present configuration in the Senate. He added that since no senator has formally informed the Senate of his defection, none of them has moved to another party. He said the rule guiding defection in the Senate was very clear, adding that any senator defecting to another party must state in clear terms his reason (s) for defection.
Also speaking on the development, Senator Bello Gwarzo (Kano North), who is the Senate Whip, dismissed the speculation that the merger would affect PDP.
“I can tell you that the PDP is becoming stronger and stronger every day. No individual can say he was the one who made PDP. The party is a combination of so many politicians coming together to have a common front. The same thing with the other political parties.
“Come 2015, nothing will deter us from winning that election. We will win the majority in the Senate; we will win the majority in the House of Representatives; we will win the Presidency on the PDP platform. In politics, we believe in permanent ideology, no permanent friend or permanent enemy. It was the decision of the governors to defect. The decision is theirs. To me, it’s all politics. You can belong to any political party you so wish”, he said.
Although there has been no defection of any senator on the floor of the Senate, from the foregoing, no fewer than 15 senators from PDP are believed to be already dancing on the door step of APC as co-travelers of the aggrieved governors. A source told Nigerian Tribune, that Senator Bukola Saraki, who has remained an unrepentant critic of the Tukur-led leadership of the party, might lead 14 other senators into the main opposition party at the resumption of the session in the Senate in January. In the event that this happens, the leadership of the Senate under PDP may become threatened. The present situation can be further altered through more alignment and re-alignment of forces among the two leading political parties.
The words of Senator Ndoma-Egba may be apt here: “I can’t say how it will affect the Senate because we have only heard of governors moving. We have not heard of senators moving. We don’t have a breakaway group in the Senate. So, it is very, very unclear how it will go in Senate here. Until people now begin to take a formal step that they want to leave, we can’t say what the situation will be. You know that in the Senate, there is a formal process. You have to write a letter that, based on so, so and so reason, you are leaving. Until we begin to receive those formal indications, we can’t know what the situation is. Politics is dynamic. It is here today, gone tomorrow. It is still evolving.”
Whichever way the pendulum swings, happenings in PDP and APC are clear indications of the fact there would be serious horse-trading that could lead to a lot of give and take in the course of either of the two political parties maintaining the status quo ante in the upper chamber of the National Assembly. More importantly, the unfolding events are clear indications of what to expect in the 2015 elections. It remains to be seen whether PDP would be able to retain its status as the ruling party or be relegated to the background by the seeming sweeping force of the broom party, APC. What also appears not in doubt is that the country may tilt towards a two-party system in the build up to the 2015 elections, with APC becoming a major force to be reckoned with.
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